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Oil and the dollar: How energy shocks can reinforce USD dominance
Oil and the US dollar are closely connected through global trade, inflation, monetary policy, and risk sentiment. But that relationship is not as straightforward as assuming higher oil prices automatically mean a stronger or weaker dollar. For me, the more useful question is what is driving oil’s movement and how the same shock affects interest-rate expectations, yields, and demand for the US dollar. This distinction becomes important during geopolitical disruptions and supply shocks, when oil can move rapidly while FX, bonds, and equities simultaneously reprice the broader macroeconomic impli...
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